On February 2, China Electric Power Enterprise Federation released the 2016 national power supply and demand situation analysis and forecast report. The report points out that in 2016, the overall macroeconomic growth rate is expected to show a steady but slow decline trend, the growth rate of power consumption will maintain a low-speed growth, and the overall power supply capacity is surplus and some regions are surplus.
Cheng Weichun, Deputy Secretary General of the China electricity Union and director of the general office of the Council, said that as China's economic development enters the new normal, power production and consumption also show the characteristics of the new normal. The power supply structure has been continuously optimized, the growth of power consumption has slowed down, and the structure has been continuously adjusted. The main driving force for the growth of power consumption has changed from high energy consuming industries to emerging industries, service industries and residential electricity consumption. The power supply and demand situation has changed from tight to loose.
According to the report, from the demand side, the overall macroeconomic growth rate in 2016 will show a steady but slow decline, and it is generally judged that the demand for electricity is still low. However, due to the low base and other factors, it is expected that the decrease in power consumption of building materials and ferrous metal smelting industry, which will slow down the growth of power consumption in 2015, will narrow in 2016; Driven by economic transformation, information consumption, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, urbanization and other factors will also continue to drive the tertiary industry and the domestic electricity consumption of residents to maintain a rapid growth; The reduction of industrial and commercial sales price and the direct transaction of power users have reduced the production cost of power consuming enterprises, which is helpful to improve enterprise operation and increase power consumption; The implementation of electricity substitution in some regions can not only promote the prevention and control of air pollution, energy conservation and emission reduction, but also promote the growth of electricity consumption. Therefore, taking into account the annual temperature level, it is expected that the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 1% to 2% year-on-year in 2016.
From the perspective of industry, it is expected that the power consumption of the primary industry will maintain the medium and low growth level in 2015 under the perennial climate conditions; The power consumption of the secondary industry is affected by the overcapacity of some industries, especially the heavy chemical industry, the state's efforts to increase energy conservation and emission reduction, and the promotion of traditional industrial technology upgrading. However, considering the narrowing of the power consumption of building materials and ferrous metal smelting industries, it is expected that the decline of the power consumption of the secondary industry will be narrower than that of 2015; Driven by the accelerated development of new generation information technologies such as the Internet and big data, the tertiary industry continues to maintain a rapid growth in electricity consumption. It is estimated that the growth rate of electricity consumption is generally the same as that in 2015. The domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents increased steadily, and the growth rate is expected to be the same as that in 2015.
From the supply side, the national power supply capacity is sufficient. It is estimated that the new installed capacity of power generation in the whole year is about 100 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation is about 52 million kilowatts; By the end of the year, China's installed power generation capacity reached 1.61 billion kilowatts, an increase of about 6.5% year-on-year, including 330 million kilowatts of hydropower, 34.5 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 150 million kilowatts of grid connected wind power, and 57 million kilowatts of grid connected solar power. The proportion of non fossil energy power generation capacity increased to about 36%.
According to the forecast report, according to the comprehensive balance analysis, it is predicted that in 2016, the overall power supply capacity of the country will be surplus and some regions will be surplus. Among them, the power supply capacity in the northeast and northwest regions is relatively large, the power supply and demand in North China is generally balanced and some provinces are surplus, while the power supply and demand in Central China, East China and South China are generally loose and many provinces are surplus. According to the median calculation of 1% to 2% growth rate of power consumption in the whole society, it is estimated that the utilization hours of power generation equipment in the whole year are about 3700 hours, of which the utilization hours of thermal power equipment are about 4000 hours.
China Power union suggests that the scale of newly started power supply should be strictly controlled, the scale of production should be reasonably reduced, the incremental structure should be optimized, and the scientific development of the power industry should be promoted; Combine far and near, and take multiple measures to speed up the solution of the problems of "abandoning water", "abandoning wind" and "abandoning light"; Adhere to open development and promote power grid interconnection with surrounding countries; We will scientifically promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the power industry, select the technical route for the transformation of environmental protection facilities according to the local, plant and coal conditions, scientifically and reasonably arrange the transformation cycle, and ensure the quality of the transformation of environmental protection facilities.
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